Bias

Dear All,

Greetings!

I found following material very interesting about the topic of bias. I am very happy to share this material with all of you who are reading this blog post. Suggestions are welcome for addition of more links to the list below. Feel free to comment about this collection of links. I must thank Naidu sir for giving me this idea of collecting interesting things on my blog.

- Dr. Abhijeet Safai

Links:

1. Confirmation Bias
2. Logical Fallacies vs Cognitive Biases
3. Understanding Bias – What color is this truck?
4. Misunderstanding cognitive bias
5. How pseudoscience tries to fool you

Putting an end to debate about Ayurveda from my side

I have decided to put an end to this debate from my side now. Whenever people will ask me about it in future, I shall redirect them here.

I have said enough about it and have spent very precious time of my life thinking, talking and debating about it. But I do not find that I am getting results in proportion to efforts I have put in. If I would have put my efforts in other fields, maybe I would have gained much more than what I am getting today in my honest opinion. As a result I think that debating and even thinking about Ayurveda is a waste of time! It is like unsolved mathematical problem to me. I will be happy if I will be able to solve it, but no one can force me to solve it if I do not wish to.

My suggestion to people who feel interested by the problem is this - do it at your own risk and there is possibility of waste of time. I have really made many honest attempts but I don't understand it. It is confusing and contradictory. People in power are somehow not ready to listen anything about it. I have felt frustrated many times. I am not taking this decision to stop debating about it in one day or month. I have been thinking and reading intensely about this topic since many years. I would say since more than 13 years! So maybe there is a major flaw in the basic theories like Tridosha theory / hypothesis itself or I lack abilities to understand it.

Below I am referring to few articles, blog posts and discussions which interested people can go through. I will be updating this list time to time as and when it will be necessary.

Thanks and regards,

Dr. Abhijeet Safai

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Important links

1. An article by Priyanka Pulla on Openmagzine - Ayurveda: Hoax or Science
2. A blog by Dr. Abhiram Dixit - आयुर्वेद : गुणकारी ? दुर्लक्षित ? कि निव्वळ बंडलबाजी ? - विज्ञानाच्या चष्म्यातून आयुर्वेद
3. My article in Symbiosis Health Times - Clinical Trials in Ayurvedic Drugs
4. A blog by a pained father of BAMS student - Know BAMS
5. A very important documentary by Prof. Richard Dawkins.  Enemies of reason - Episode 2 - The irrational health service
6. Nirmukta.com - Promoting Science, Freethought and Secular Humanism in India - Pseudoscience & Quackery - September 11, 2015by Ameya Ingawale - AYUSH – Utter Nonscience!

That is all for now. 

Knowledge does not go waste! Really???

They say that knowledge does not go waste. So read everything which comes to your way. Study whatever you can, and you will be fine. You will earn knowledge in the end.

But I do not believe in this. Life is finite and there is lot of knowledge in the world and it is increasing continually. If we will not plan and study important things, time will pass on and we would not have earned necessary knowledge, even after having the capacity to learn it.

So in this era of internet, and knowledge explosion, do not start reading every book which comes to your way or because simply available. Spend time selecting the book and then read it. Spend time choosing the appropriate course / education. Think what you will be doing after doing the course and then go ahead if the picture it creates matches with the one in your head. Or at least you are aware about the future at that time.

I do not mean to say that there should be no spontaneity and we should keep on doing all the things with proper planning all the time. But planning helps sometimes. That is all.

And most important, don't gain knowledge for the sake of gaining it. Because there are many who are trying to sell their books. Books are for us to read and gain knowlege. Not the other way round. 

Dear friends, please do not take admission to BAMS

Dear friends, I really feel so. I really feel so that I would have been surely at a better position if I would not have had opted for it. There are many reasons for my this decision to write this blog but some of them are as follows:

1) The syllabus of BAMS is very old and much of it is useless in today's world in my opinion. People are not ready to change the syllabus and keep fighting logical fallacies.

2) You will have to learn the things which you do not like if you are a lover of science. Many of the things which we learn are unscientific or there is no scientific explanation. One has to only read them only because they appear in certain books.

3) There are no good job opportunities after BAMS. BAMS is not considered as science internationally. So taking post graduation education from other countries is a big problem. One really has to struggle harder.

4) There is lot of mental torcher from MBBS doctors when one BAMS tries to do good allopathic practice. Partially they seem right as they have got better education in terms of medicine than us. There are many issues about it. The lesser said the better.

5) So only if you want to have a doctor salutation behind your name, you can go for it. It gives so little scope that it is unacceptable to me at least.

So if you are thinking or if some one who is near to you is thinking to go for BAMS, please ask them to think again. They can go for it if they are still willing to go for it.

I will say that I am feeling good after being BAMS doctor only because we can practice allopathic medicine in the state of Maharashtra. I really did not like the syllabus and I strongly feel that it was a waste of time. I could have done so many great things in the time which I spent doing BAMS. It feels good when people give you respect as doctor but I really feel sorry for myself that a lot of time was wasted studying useless things. Many people do not think so and they find it useful. I really dont know how can they find all the things useful in the current syllabus.

Anyway. I feel that I have done my job of giving true feedback which I had not got when I took decision to do BAMS. Hope it will be useful to someone.

Thanks and many good wishes for your career! 

Richard Dawkins

Richard Dawkins. Thats it. I would like to write only that much! I am so much in love with the logic of this person that I feel that telling the name of this person is more than enough. One important reason of not writing much about what I want to say is that I have not been able to read much of his books. As a result I have little knowledge about this person in that sense but the videos which I have seen on YouTube are simply great! Hence I would suggest other people reading this blog to try to understand what this person is and what he is trying to tell in his documentary film - 'Enemies of Reason'. I am quite sure that I will be watching this film again and again and again and again and again ...... But then why to tell others? Why not to listen to it quietly on my own? Why I am writing this blog or plan to write about it as and when I will get time?

The reason of writing this blog is again Richard Dawkins. He says and I agree to the fact that the scientific material is less in volume. And I feel that as it is less in volume, it is read less as a consequence as compared to other. Now it is our responsibility who love science to propagate scientific thinking. After understanding as how difficult it is do something in science on your own, we shall at least try to recommend good things which we read to others.

One more reason to write this blog is that I have feeling that I have been deprived of science as I took admission to BAMS. I do not want to all the burden of this thing on it alone but I also must be responsible for the same. Whatever may be the reason, my feeling is true and is very very intense. I do not want other people who are near and dear to me or those who are caring to read this blog to be deprived of science. I found this way the most efficient way to spread it as once we understand what good science is, we will automatically not fall in the trap of non scientific things, provided we are lovers of science.

I have no objection for the people who want to study non scientific things like arts!!! In fact I like art very much. My only concern is - let it be a conscious decision.

I hope that I will I will improve my writing style as your suggestions will come. I want to make this writing as sober as possible.

So... in short - Richard Dawkins.

Syllabus of the course of Case-Based Introduction to Biostatistics

ScheduleHelp

Case-Based Introduction to Biostatistics

July 22 – August 25, 2013

Module 1 (Weeks 1 & 2) Question: What common background understanding do I need to get started in improving my ability to critically and quantitatively reason about health questions?
Week 1: July 22-July 28
Question	Statistical ideas	Statistical skills	Videos	Homework	Quiz
What is the scientific method?	Experiments generate evidence that supports some competing hypotheses more than others.	Specify hypotheses	1.1. Scientific method	1A	1A
How do we quantify evidence?	Likelihood ratio updates the prior odds to obtain posterior odds	Calculate odds from a probability; Calculate a probability from an odds.	1.1. Scientific method	1A	1A
What does it mean to say: “this drug prevents heart attacks” or “obesity increases the cost of medical care”	The meaning of “cause” can usefully be made precise in terms of potential outcomes.	Determine whether a statement is “causal” or not.	1.2. On “cause”	1A	1A
What is probability?	Probability means long-run frequency or alternately is a quantification of the strength of belief; joint, marginal, conditional probabilities	Calculate probabilities from data in a 2x2 table.	1.3. On probability	1A	1A
Week 2: July 29-August 4
Question	Statistical ideas	Statistical skills	Videos	Homework	Quiz
What is a probability distribution for a random variable?	Probability distribution is a function that takes a possible value (discrete) or set of values (continuous) as input and returns the probability the random variable assumes the input value(s).	Calculate specified probabilities from a given probability distribution.	1.4. Probability distributions.	1B	1B
What is the binomial distribution? (What is meant by “independence” of two events?)	A mathematical model for INDEPENDENT coin tossing-like systems in nature.	Given the number of tosses (n) and probability of success on each INDEPENDENT toss (p), calculate the probability of observing x out of n successes for any x between 0 and n.	1.5. Binomial distribution	1B	1B
What is the Gaussian (“normal”) distribution and how is it derived?	Mathematical model for the probability distribution of the average of independent random variables.	Approximate the probability a Gaussian random variable with specified mean and variances falls in any given interval.	1.6. Gaussian distribution	1B	1B
Module 2 (Weeks 3 & 4) Question: How do the average medical care costs for people with a major smoking-caused disease (MSCD) differ from those for people without MSCDs who are otherwise similar?
Week 3: August 5-August 11
Question	Statistical ideas	Statistical skills	Videos	Homework	Quiz
What is the probability distribution of medical expenditures for persons with/without a MSCD?	Distribution of medical expenditures; summaries of location, spread, and shape; transforming the variable to better understand the distribution.	Calculate a mean, median, quartiles, standard deviation; Make and interpret a stem and leaf plot; Make and interpret a boxplot.	2.1. Distribution of medical expenditures	2A	2A
What is the probability distribution of an independent sample of size n drawn from the observed distribution of medical expenditures	Simple random sampling; Stratified sampling; Central limit theorem.		2.2. Sampling and the Central Limit Theorem	2A	2A
What is a confidence interval for the population mean?	Confidence intervals as interval estimates for an unknown population mean (the truth we seek).	Calculate a 95% or 99% confidence interval for an unknown population mean from a sample of n independent observations drawn from the population.	2.3. Confidence intervals.	2A	2A
Week 4: August 12-August 18
How does the distribution of medical expenditures differ for persons with vs without a MSCD?	Comparing distributions. Differences of means; Standardized mean differences; Ratios.	Make and interpret a Q-Q plot. Calculate and interpret t-statistic.	2.4. Comparing distributions	2B	2B
How does the distribution of medical expenditures differ across age and poverty strata?	Comparing distributions across several strata; table of pair-wise standardized mean differences	Interpreting multiple boxplots after variable transformation	2.4. Comparing distributions	2B	2B
How does the distribution of medical expenditures differ for persons with vs without a MSCD of similar age and poverty level?	Stratification by covariates; Estimation within strata.	Calculate a t-statistics for each stratum; interpret results across strata	2.5. Pooling across strata	2B	2B
When is it warranted to pool results across strata and how do we do it?	“Effect modification” or “interaction”; Pooling multiple estimates, giving greater weight to the more precise estimates.	Estimate the overall effect of MSCD on medical expenditures from the stratum specific values	2.5. Pooling across strata	2B	2B
How does the pooled result compare to the simple comparison in 2.4? Why are they different?	Confounding when we fail to compare otherwise similar populations		2.6. What we learned in module 2.	2B	2B
Module 3 (Week 5) Question: What is the rate of infant survival during the first 26 weeks of life in southern Nepal and how does the rate of survival vary by infant’s gestational age, sex, or being a singleton versus twin birth?
Week 5: August 19-August 25
Question	Statistical ideas	Statistical skills	Videos	Homework	Quiz
What is an odds ratio; what is a log odds ratio; why is the log odds ratio so commonly used in health research?	Defining parameters with unbounded support; odds approximate the risk; invariance of the odds ratio	Estimate an odds ratio from a 2x2 table with 95% confidence interval	3.1. Odds ratio estimation	3A	3A
How does child survival depend upon sex and twin status?	2x2 tables; log odds “model” or “logistic regression”	Apply odds ratio estimation to answer a substantive question.	3.2. Odd ratio estimation	3A	3A
How does the log odds of child survival depend upon gestational age?	Study outcome expressed as a function of a continuous predictor variable - regression	Display the dependence of the log odds of survival on gestational age	3.3. Introduction to logistic regression	3A	3A

पुस्तक परिचय - एका नक्षलवाद्याचा जन्म- विलास मनोहर

मी वाचलेल्या पुस्तकांपैकी हे एक अतिउत्तम दर्जाचं लिखाण केलेलं पुस्तक आहे. ही एक उत्तम कलाकृती तर आहेच पण त्या शिवाय ते वास्तवदेखील आहे. पुस्तकाच्या सुरुवातीसच लेखक हे स्पष्ट करतो की यातील घटना खऱ्या घडल्या आहेत. नावे बदलली आहेत.

इतक्या उत्तम पुस्तकाची माहिती द्यायला कुठून सुरुवात करावी हा एक प्रश्न आहे. त्याबद्दल माझ्या डोक्यात गोंधळ आहे. आणि हे पुस्तक आपल्या डोक्यातले अनेक गोंधळ तीव्र करत. माझ्यासारख्या शिकलेल्या आणि चार बुकं वाचलेल्या व्यक्तीच्या डोक्यातही  नक्षलवादाबद्दल गोंधळ आहेत. नीट माहिती नाही हे मी मान्य करायला हवं आणि मग आपण विचार करू शकतो की आदिवासी लोकांच्या मनात याबद्दल काय गोंधळ उडत असेल? हा गोंधळ कायम असताना लिहिलेला हा लेख आहे.

‘एका नक्षलवाद्याचा जन्म’ या शीर्षकातच खूप अर्थ सामावला आहे. नक्षलवाद्याचा जन्म का होतो? कसा होतो? त्याला कोण कोण जबाबदार असतं? या प्रश्नाची उत्तरे यात मिळतात, किंवा साहजिकच आपणच उत्तरे शोधायला लागतो.

नक्षलवादी हा कुणी आकाशातून टपकलेला प्राणी नसतो. तो पण आपल्यासारखा माणूसच असतो. पण मग तो अशी पावले का उचलतो?कुठल्याही गोष्टीचा जन्म/निर्मिती होण्यासाठी बऱ्याच घटना आणि prerequisites ची गरज असते. या सर्व prerequisitesचा अभ्यास आपल्याला यात बघायला मिळतो.

एका सत्य घटनेबरोबरच ही एक कादंबरी देखील आहे. मला साहित्यातील फार काही कळत नाही पण जेवढे कळते त्यावरून याचे साहित्यिक मूल्यही खूप उच्च दर्जाचे आहे असे वाटते. हे पुस्तक एखाद्याreport प्रमाणेही आहे. तसेच लिहिल्या गेलेल्या काळाचे ते documentationदेखील आहे. (दुर्दैवाने ते आजही लागू पडत आहे असे वाटते). हे पुस्तक एक चिंतनही आहे. या आणि अश्या प्रकारच्या समस्या कश्या सोडवाव्यात या विचारांची बीजे आपल्याला या पुस्तकात सापडतात. नक्षलवादाची समस्या सोडवण्यासाठी त्याचा जन्म समजावून घेतला पाहिजे. आणि म्हणूनच ही समस्या सोडवण्याचा प्रयत्न करणाऱ्यांनी (मुख्यतः पोलीस) जरूर वाचावे असे हे पुस्तक आहे. हे असं होतं मग त्यानंतर असं होतं आणि मग हे असं होतं अशी गणितीय समीकरणाप्रमाणे यातील arguments ची मांडणी आहे. गोष्टी कश्या घडत जातात याबद्दल बर्णन आहे. यात गोष्टी एका मागोमाग एक आधीच्या गोष्टींच्या आधाराने घडत जातात.

लेखकाची लेखनशैली अप्रतिम आहे. लेखक कोणाचीच बाजू घेत नाही पण सर्वांच्या बाजूचे दर्शन घडवतो. कोणाचीही बाजू न घेता भावनांचे वर्णन कसे करावे याचा हे पुस्तक जणू वस्तुपाठच आहे. देहबोलीच्या निरीक्षणातील बारकावे थक्क करायला लावणारे आहेत. उदाहरणार्थ

१. - मुलाला डोक्यावरून वजन घेऊन जाताना होणारा त्रास. त्याचे ते लपवणे,पण आईच्या लक्षात येणे!

२.- जुरू (कथेचा नायक) ला पोलिसांच्या हालचालींवरून कोण वरिष्ठ पदावर आहे आणि कोण कनिष्ट पदावर आहे हे समजणे.  

३. - शाळेत जात असणाऱ्या मुलाच्या विचारातील आणि त्यामुळे होणारे देहबोलीतील बदल.

४. - चेहऱ्यावरच्या भावना लपवायला शिकलेला आदिवासी पोलीस स्टेशनवर जाऊन आल्यावर कसा त्या दाखवायला शिकतो. इत्यादी

काही लेखकांची लिखाणाची शैली इतकी उत्तम असते की त्यांच्या शब्दांमुळे आपल्या डोळ्यासमोर सहज चित्र उभे रहाते. याला word pictureअसे म्हणतात. विलास मनोहरांची लिखाणाची शैली अशी word pictureआहे. हे एक जीव ओतून लिहिलेले पुस्तक आहे.

हे पुस्तक फक्त नक्षलवाद ह्या समस्येच्या करणावर भाष्य करत नाही तर आदिवासींचे रोजचे जीवन, आणि त्यांची जीवन जगण्याची पद्धत याबद्दलही माहिती देते. या पुस्तकाच्या माध्यमातून आपण आदिवासींच्या जीवनात डोकावतो. त्यांच्या परंपरा, श्रद्धा, योग्य अयोग्यतेच्या कल्पनांबद्दल माहिती मिळते.

संपर्कात आलेल्या अनेक बिगर आदिवासींनी वर्षानुवर्षे आदिवासींचे केलेले शोषण किती तीव्र आहे हे सुस्पष्ट होते. आदिवासींना वाटणारी पोलिस आणि नक्षलवाद्यांची दुहेरी दहशत जाणवते. माझी नक्षलवादाच्या बातम्यांबद्दलची प्रतिक्रिया "अरे बापरे" अशी होती आणि आहे. पण सतत दहशतीखाली असणाऱ्यांची प्रतिक्रिया काय असेल याची कल्पना केलेलीच बरी. यातील बातम्यांवरून आपल्याला कितीक आणि किती खरी माहिती मिळते याबद्दलही आपण पुस्तक वाचल्यावर विचार करायला लागतो.

पोलिसांचे, फॉरेस्ट ऑफिसर्सचे वर्णन, पोलीस पाटलाचे वर्णन यातून परिस्थितीची कल्पना येते आणि हा प्रश्न किती गुंतागुंतीचा आहे याची जाणीव होते. त्यामुळे नक्षलवादाबद्दल बेजबाबदार, बेधडक विधाने करणे किमान मी तरी टाळेल याची मला खात्री वाटते.

आदिवासींना करावे लागणारे शारीरिक कष्ट, त्याकडे त्यांची बघण्याची पद्धत, त्यांची तंटा सोडवण्याची पद्धत, कपडे, शिक्षण याबद्दलचे मत यात वर्णन केले आहे. हे सगळे शहरी लोकांपेक्षा वेगळे असणारे घटक तर यात वर्णिलेले आहेतच पण त्याच बरोबर त्यांना शहरी लोकांबरोबर जोडणाऱ्या काही धाग्यांचेही यात वर्णन आहे. हे सर्व कथेच्या पार्श्वभूमीवर घडत असते.  काही प्रसंग इतके सखोल वर्णिलेले आहेत की त्यावेळी नक्की काय घडत असेल याची बरीच कल्पना येते.

हे पुस्तक नक्षलवादाच्या जन्माबद्दल आणि कारणांबद्दल भाष्य तर करताच पण त्याचबरोबर विचारांचा, भावनांचा आणि देहबोली आणि घटनांच्या निरीक्षणांचा एक खजिना आहे. ज्याची जेवढी आकलनक्षमता असेल, त्याला तेवढ्या प्रमाणात हे धन मिळतं. पोलिस, फोरेस्ट गार्ड आणि त्यांच्या मदतीला असलेले पोलिस पाटील यांनी जर आदिवासींचे इतके शोषण केले नसते, तर ही समस्या इतकी मोठी झाली नसती, किवा मुळात उभीच राहिली नसती.

हे पुस्तक मला पूर्णपणे समजले आहे असे मला काही वाटत नाही. तरीपण मला जेवढ समजले आहे ते share करण्याचा हा एक प्रयत्न आहे.

अभिजीत सफई

http://simollanghan.blogspot.in/2013/03/blog-post_8.html